The Future of AI · Domain
Money & Markets
Valuations, compute on the balance sheet, agent-to-agent transactions, and the professional-services multiple.
World nominal GDP, measured in current US dollars, will be at least 2.0x its calendar-year 2026 level in a calendar year ending on or before December 31, 2036.
World real GDP, measured at constant prices, will be at least 2.0x its calendar-year 2026 level in a calendar year ending on or before December 31, 2036.
Money & Markets — scoreboard
Scored by Brier score, not win/loss. Lower is better. 0.000 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, 1.000 is confidently wrong. Being right at 55% earns less than being right at 90% — we score calibration, not bragging.
| Forecaster | Calls | Resolved | Hit | Miss | Partial | Avg. confidence | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRED | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21% | — |
| Matt | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33% | — |
Nothing has resolved yet. Most of these calls run two to five years, so the board will sit still for a while — that's the honest cost of making predictions worth making. Short-horizon calls are seeded throughout so there's movement before 2029.